Rough, but ready?

As the DRC gears up for elections later this year, Reuters correspondent David Lewis asks how prepared this bruised and battered country is for democracy.

After nearly half a century of dictatorship, a decade of conflict and two years attempting to cement a transition from war to democracy, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s 60 million citizens are due to go to the polls this summer.

Life for most people in the vast nation is harsh, even by African standards. With an average daily income of 27 US cents per person, the country is one of the world’s poorest. But, for the first time in 40 years, the Congolese should be given the chance to go out and vote for the leader they want to run their country – Africa’s third largest, and a resource-rich nation that has experienced a rollercoaster ride like few others on the continent.

Independence from Belgian colonial masters came in 1960, but the fledgling democracy was soon sucked into the Cold War conflict in Africa. Fearful that a country sharing a border with nine nations at the heart of the continent might fall under the communist spell, meant money and investment, with strings attached. It also brought a touch of class for some in the country’s capital, Kinshasa, which became known as Kin-la-belle, was toured by world famous musicians and in 1974 hosted the legendary heavyweight boxing match, the ‘Rumble in the Jungle’.

But led by Mobutu Sese Seko, a man whose dictatorship redefined the term kleptocracy, the country suffered years of decline and, by 1997, foreign backed rebels ousted the ailing president after a two-year march across the country, installing their leader Laurent Kabila in the decaying capital.

Kabila’s fortunes did not last long. War resumed the following year, he was assassinated in 2001 and the transitional government in place today is charged with consolidating peace deals signed in 2003 to end a five-year war that sucked in six neighbouring countries and killed three million people, mostly from hunger and disease.

Under Joseph Kabila, Laurent’s son who became the country’s 29-year-old president when his father was shot, Congo has gone further down the road towards peace than many imagined possible. But political and military instability continues and analysts warn that elections will be difficult to organise and not necessarily be an end in themselves.

The power-sharing government that was installed after months of talks is unwieldy. Kabila leads the country alongside four vice-presidents, a cabinet of 36 ministers and two houses of parliament, all of whom represent the former government, rebels, the political opposition and civil society.

The complex political structure has not been used elsewhere, and has led to problems. But, after years of war, chaos and suffering, it has the financial and political backing of the international community. “The people of this country have not been lucky in the past,” says Ross Mountain, the deputy special representative of the UN Secretary General in Congo. “But the commitment of the international community in terms of the UN mission and in terms of money for aid programmes is dramatic at the moment.”

With nearly 16,000 soldiers and a budget exceeding $750 million a year, MONUC (as the UN mission is known) is the largest UN peacekeeping force in the world. International donors have also promised $5.7 billion over the next four years to rebuild the war-torn country. Within the framework of the agreement, a committee of diplomats in Kinshasa advises the government when the decision-making process is blocked.

But Ross Mountain warns that Congo may just have one shot at consolidating peace: “In Africa two out of every three transitions end up going backwards. And if this one fails, I’m not sure that the world is going to reinvest any time soon in making it happen.”

The size of Congo, as well as its recent history, has shown why peace in the country is vital to the region. The country borders nine African countries and, while a potential trading partner, its conflict affects nearly every neighbour. Congo remains home to some 10,000 Rwandan Hutu rebels, who fled to the lawless east after taking part in the 1994 genocide when 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed. Rwanda regularly threatens to send troops into Congo unless the rebels are disarmed and sent home. Angolan, Zimbabwean and, to some extent, Sudanese soldiers all fought in Congo’s war. Uganda and Burundi still complain that rebels use Congo as a launching pad for attacks on their countries armed forces and have threatened intervention.

The vast nation is famous for its wealth in natural resources, which are dominated by diamonds, coltan, cobalt, cassiterite and gold, but also include fertile agricultural land and the world’s second largest rainforest. But the wealth of the country is not being widely shared. “There are investments into Congo, but these are not investments that are helping the people,” laments a Congolese businessman in Kinshasa. “Lots of money is going into mining, but the people that live in the mining areas have not benefited anything from years of taking stuff out of the ground. Towns like Mbuji Mayi (a mining town in southern Congo) should be like Las Vegas but they don’t have roads, electricity or water. It just works for the cowboys.”

So far, Congo’s resources have done more to fuel the war than develop the nation. But in a sign of the potential role Kinshasa can play in developing the continent, South African energy giant Eskom recently confirmed plans for a $50 billion power project on the Congo river. The scheme, on the Inga Rapids, in western Congo has been stalled for two decades because of the conflict but, if developed to its full potential, could generate more than 40,000 megawatts – enough to power Africa's industries, and possibly sell the surplus to southern Europe.

Although much of the world’s media attention has been diverted to other humanitarian disasters, the UN still believes that Congo’s simmering conflict has created the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. This is backed up by a survey by the International Rescue Committee, a New York-based aid agency, which found last year that 1,000 people were dying every day in Congo, mostly from hunger and disease – on top of the 3.8 million that have died since the war began.

“In a matter of six years, the world lost a population equivalent to the entire country of Ireland or the city of Los Angeles. How many innocent Congolese have to perish before the world starts paying attention?” the organisation asked when it launched the report in December.

Although clashes occur and insecurity persists in the east, most of the nationwide fighting has stopped and the foreign armies have withdrawn their soldiers (although Kinshasa believes Rwanda has maintained a presence in the east, despite officially withdrawing her army and denying the charges). A new military hierarchy has been set up in the Congolese army, with top posts shared out between former belligerents and the establishment of a structure to integrate several hundred thousand fighters into a cohesive national army.

A sense of normality has also returned to the country. Congolese, separated by years of war, can now fly from one side of their country without having to pass through neighbouring states. River traffic has opened up on the Congo River – the only means of transport or communications in a country with little infrastructure to speak of. The economy has enjoyed several years of growth. The former warring factions, alongside the political opposition and representatives from civil society, have formed a transitional government, nominated provincial governors and are working through a list of laws that need to be passed during the transitional period.

But with only months until the transition is due to end and elections are set to take place, the list of tasks to be completed is daunting, raising the prospects that the polls may be delayed. “The transition needs Ariadne’s ball of string. But all we have today is a ball of chaos,” warned Olivier Kamitatu, president of the National Assembly.

Among other problems, Kamitatu was referring to the continuing lack of trust between the various factions and the delays that plague decision making at every step of the process. As a result the redistribution of positions in local administration, the diplomatic corps, the security services and the heads of state-owned businesses has been blocked.

A new constitution has not yet been passed, nor have two other key laws, which are required before elections can take place, prompting cynicism, not only from international and national observers, but even those involved in the process. “People enjoy the power, they are well paid and, subconsciously, there is a desire to continue to party,” admits a Senator, referring to the likelihood that the transition will be prolonged. The peace deal allows parliament to approve two six-month extensions to the transitional period if there are logistical problems in the organisation of elections.

President Kabila maintains that elections will be held on time. Other members of his government are more open about talking about a delay. But diplomats and political analysts speak more in terms of when, rather than if, the delay is going to be announced. Little progress has been made in genuine military reform, beyond the nomination of regional military commanders and the establishment of a new hierarchy.

Vast swathes of the country are still controlled by armed groups, who prey on civilians and make money through running mining operations or tax extortion rackets that funded much of the war. And an uprising by Tutsi-led army officers in June last year – and further clashes between former Rwandan-backed rebels and pro-Kinshasa forces in eastern Congo in December – underlined the need for thorough army integration to take place.

“These clashes show how little progress has really been made towards integration,” says a regional military analyst. “Some progress has to be made, not just in terms of security for the elections but also to show that the political process has moved on. There are not enough honest brokers who are committed to carry out the army integration. There is too much hedging of bets.”

Belgium , South Africa and Angola are involved in several initiatives to identify and train soldiers for the new national army in two training centres, one on each side of the country. Those not chosen are due to go through a $200 million community reinsertion programme. Despite rhetoric from all sides, the plans have been delayed, lack co-ordination and are not being implemented on the ground. Only a few thousand men, many of whom were never soldiers or are too old, young or injured to be in the new army, have turned up at each training camp. “Unfortunately, this not only demonstrates that lack of co-ordination but also the lack of political will from the armed groups,” said a western diplomat in Kinshasa.

The worry for many is that without a cohesive national army, it will be difficult to hold elections and guarantee that law and order is maintained when the result is announced.

“January was a month of campaigning and the message was clear,” says Hubert Tshiswaka, a human rights activist in the mineral-rich Katanga province, where many of president Kabila’s supporters are from. “The president's party held rallies saying he must be re-elected and those that don’t want to support him must leave. We are seeing divisive politics starting down here – people need to calm things down, otherwise there will be trouble.”

But Father Apollinaire Malu Malu, the head of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which is charged with organising the elections, believes they will take place within “the constitutional framework”. “Each institution has its role to play, so they must do their job. Laws must be voted, security must be arranged, the operations must be coordinated and we need the financing,” he said. “We will get there if people honour their agreements.”

Political and military constraints aside, the challenge of organising elections in Congo is an enormous one. The country is the size of Western Europe but has no infrastructure. There are as many potential voters as there are people in Iraq but there are no lists, nor any formal identification system. And the last democratic polls were held over 40 years ago. “Coming here,” says Ross Mountain, the UN representative, “makes the Iraqi elections look like a walk in the park”.

The IEC says it needs up to $285 million dollars (security and transport of equipment aside) to run the polls that will take place at over 40,000 voting booths across the country. Just $60 million has been disbursed so far.

But, after years of waiting, expectations are high and there is a growing sense of frustration amongst Congolese in the street, who feel they have seen limited benefits from the end of the war while those in power have cashed in on their new positions and now cruise around town in brand new cars.

These frustrations boiled over in early January, when the head of the electoral commission suggested in public for the first time that the polls may have to be delayed. Thousands of people tried to demonstrate against a delay in polls, clashing with riot police in the streets of Kinshasa. “Things are going from bad to worse for the ordinary Congolese people,” explains Dr. Mbwebwe Kabamba, a political analyst and head of the emergency ward at Kinshasa’s main hospital. “Nothing is working properly, the franc is losing its value, nurses and teachers are on strike and there is now talk of delaying the elections. This is creating a dangerous atmosphere. There will be more demonstrations.”

The people want elections to make their voice heard in the DRC, but there is a recognition that even the polls are only a step on a long road – and even they will be fraught with potential hazards. “There is a crisis,” says Becken Njema, a 40 year old shoe-seller in Kinshasa market. “There is no money, people are corrupt and the politicians just act in bad faith. Right now, all they are protecting is their own interests. We desperately want elections but fear that even if there are elections, things will still be the same.” And he warned, “If they are not careful, there could be an explosion that they can’t manage”.

Image: Page spread © Ricardo Gangale

Image: UN peacekeepers © Riccardo Gangale/PA

Image: Flip-flop seller © Riccardo Gangale/AFP/Getty Images

Image: Diamonds © Teun Voeten/Panos Pictures